JAKARTA — Indonesia’s export machine roared back in September 2026, powered by a commodity price shock that has turned the country’s processed metals and palm oil into the most sought-after cargoes in the Indo-Pacific. Non-oil and gas exports jumped 12.39% year-on-year to $26.64 billion, with crude palm oil shipments more than doubling and copper exports nearly tripling as the World Bank confirmed that global commodity prices are on track for their sharpest annual increase in years .
The September surge, reported by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) on November 2, caps a nine-month run in which Indonesia’s total exports reached $221.23 billion, up 5.58% from the same period in 2025 . But beneath the headline growth lies a starkly bifurcated picture: the commodities tied to the global energy transition and food security are delivering windfall gains, while traditional manufactured goods and oil and gas exports continue to lag.
The Metals Complex: Copper, Nickel, Aluminium
The single most explosive line item in Indonesia’s September trade data was copper. Exports of the red metal surged 184.98% year-on-year to $606.37 million, a reflection of both higher global prices and the ramp-up of Indonesia’s downstream smelting capacity . Processed nickel products rose 32.98% to $1.15 billion, extending a run that has made Indonesia the indispensable supplier of battery-grade nickel to China’s electric vehicle supply chain .
For the January-September period, the three non-oil and gas commodities with the highest cumulative export growth were aluminium and aluminium goods at 104.88%, copper and copper goods at 57.49%, and nickel and nickel goods at 47.87% . These are not marginal gains. They represent a structural reorientation of Indonesia’s export economy away from raw commodity extraction and toward processed industrial inputs.
The driver is global. The World Bank’s October Commodity Markets Outlook, released October 28, reported that metal and mineral prices are set to reach an all-time peak in 2026, with aluminium, copper, and tin hitting record highs . The Bank attributed the surge to a combination of supply disruptions and robust demand from electrification, grid investment, and data-center construction. The same report projected overall commodity prices to rise 23% in 2026, with energy prices alone climbing 32% to a four-year high .
Palm Oil: The Food-Fuel Nexus
Crude palm oil (CPO) delivered the largest single value increase in September. Exports reached $3.82 billion, up 110.08% from September 2025 . The jump reflects both higher international vegetable oil prices—driven by El Niño-related supply concerns and biofuel mandates—and strong demand from India and China.
Cumulatively, animal and vegetable fats and oils remained Indonesia’s largest non-oil and gas export category at $4.43 billion in September alone, with mineral fuels at $2.99 billion and iron and steel at $2.70 billion . The World Bank’s baseline forecast warns that food commodity prices could rise further if Middle East conflict escalates, with an adverse scenario projecting food prices 12% higher than expected and surpassing 2022 levels .
For palm oil exporters, the windfall is real but the window may be finite. The World Bank projects commodity prices to ease 7% in 2027, with Brent crude falling back to $79 per barrel from $91 in 2026 . The question for Indonesian producers is whether they can lock in long-term contracts at current prices before the cycle turns.
Energy: A Different Story for Indonesia
While global energy prices are surging—Brent averaged $108.34 per barrel in October, and Indonesia’s own crude price (ICP) hit $117.24 per barrel —Indonesia is not a beneficiary in net terms. The country’s oil and gas exports actually fell 9.11% to $8.96 billion through September 2026, according to Okezone . Indonesia is a net oil importer, and the surge in global prices is a fiscal drain rather than a windfall.
The energy bonanza is accruing to exporters in the Middle East, Russia, and North America. For Indonesia, the commodity boom is a metals and agriculture story.
The China Anchor and the U.S. Hedge
China remained Indonesia’s largest non-oil and gas export destination, absorbing $54.17 billion in the January-September period, up 16.70% year-on-year . The composition of that trade is revealing: nickel and nickel goods, animal and vegetable fats and oils, and mineral fuels were the top commodities flowing to China . Beijing’s demand for Indonesian nickel is insatiable, driven by its dominance in global battery and stainless steel production.
The United States followed at $25.39 billion, with India at $15 billion . The U.S. market remains critical for Indonesia’s consumer goods and seafood exports, but the tariff environment has become more uncertain. The 10-15% universal tariff regime implemented in early 2026 has raised costs for Indonesian manufacturers shipping to America, though the impact has been partially offset by the commodity price boom.
The Textile Exception: Growth Without Bonanza
Not every export sector is enjoying a windfall. Vietnam’s textile and garment exports, the regional benchmark, rose just 3.3% in the first nine months of 2026 to over $36 billion . Vinatex, the country’s largest garment group, reported that while revenue rose, margins are under pressure from unit prices, costs, and the complexity of small orders . The same dynamic applies to Indonesia’s garment and footwear exporters: they are gaining market share as orders shift away from China, but they are not capturing the price premiums that metals and palm oil are commanding.
The commodity bonanza of 2026 is, by the World Bank’s own reckoning, a shock-driven phenomenon. Brent at $91 per barrel and metals at record highs reflect a supply system strained by Middle East conflict, depleted inventories, and the physical disruption of trade routes . The Bank’s baseline assumes no further escalation. If that assumption holds, prices ease in 2027. If it does not, the adverse scenario projects Brent at $105 and food prices surpassing 2022 peaks .